Cedant web hosting - 328 CHAPTER 12 TRENDING, FORECASTING, AND CAPACITY
328 CHAPTER 12 TRENDING, FORECASTING, AND CAPACITY PLANNING underlying persistence engines are substantially different between J2EE 1.4 entity beans and Java EE 5 entity beans, you do not recommend a hardware upgrade to the database to support a dying technology. You were able to make this realization, because you were communicating with development and abreast of their plan, and you were familiar with the technology. Some of the external factors that you need to be cognizant of when forecasting trends can be summarized as follows: Technology changes Natural growth Targeted growth (marketing promotions, tradeshows, Webinars) Technology changes can include upgrades to application servers, operating systems, and underlying hardware, as well as changes anywhere in the technology stack of any external dependency that the application interacts with significantly, such as a database. For the purposes of this discussion, we define environmental technology as major, third-party provided or thirdparty purchased technologies, such as application servers, databases, and hardware. Aside from environmental technology changes, internal technology changes must also be considered, such as the development team replacing TopLink with Hibernate or using a different logging library. These applications are considered internal technologies, because although they are provided by a third party, your applications make use of them directly, and their performance will depend greatly on your application s use of them. The distinction between internal and external technologies is not always black and white, but generally, classify infrastructure as external, and code-level technologies as internal. When either of these changes is scheduled, it can greatly affect extrapolated trends, and as the person responsible for developing accurate forecasts, your role is to understand the impact of such technical decisions and incorporate that understanding into your forecasts. As the previous example stated, this role requires the following two things from you: Open communication with the technology groups in your organization, including both the development team and Information Services (IS) Deep industry knowledge and research into popular technologies Natural growth, the second external factor to monitor, is a sustained increase in user load. Users may be employees hired by your company that will be using your intranet application or shoppers on your e-commerce site who become regular customers as the result of a coupon that you sent to them. The point is that natural growth denotes an increase in user load that can be expected to be sustained for the foreseeable future. Any increase in user load is going to affect the performance of your applications, and most trends begin with the extrapolation of changes based on additional users. For example, the response time of a particular request is 4 seconds with 500 users, and with a good mathematical model representing the response time patterns, we expect the same request to take 4.5 seconds with 550 users. Notwithstanding any external influences such as technology changes or marketing promotions, natural growth represents the clearest factor in establishing forecasts. Targeted growth is characterized by short-term spikes in user load based on some event, such as a new marketing campaign, targeted promotion, tradeshow, Webinar, or seminar. When your company proactively seeks additional users, some of them may move into the natural growth bucket and become customers, but you can, nonetheless, expect a spike in user
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